Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #50 – March 22, 2020, 11:39:39 pm "AZ is on the low end of reported cases and no signs of a lock down at this point (the increased availability of testing is creating big rises in the number of reported cases all over including here)."That's the big unknown. The US lags so far behind countries such as South Korea in tests per capita that we really have no idea how many cases there are. For example, last time I checked, there were no reported cases in Mohave County, AZ. Whew! But wait--nobody in Mohave County has been tested. So we don't know how many are infected right now.Much of the country is in a similar situation. It's easy to relax when there are no cases, or only a handful, in one's area... but since less than 1% of the population has been tested, the numbers we're seeing almost certainly vastly underrepresent the number of infected people."I will be interested to see how it all turns out compared to other flus..."This is important: the coronavirus Covid-19 is not a flu. It isn't in the same family of viruses, and it's much more dangerous than a flu virus. Calling it that could lead people to shrug it off as "just another flu... this happens every year, so what's the big deal?" I know you didn't mean that, but I'm concerned that people won't take the medical community's recommendations seriously if they think this is just another flu.Based on worldwide statistics so far, Covid-19 is at least twice as contagious as flu, and about twenty times more likely to kill. While it's true that seasonal flu kills tens of thousands each year, the combination of this coronavirus's rapid spread and high lethality make the current pandemic something to take very seriously.I wear nitrile gloves when I have to go out in public (rarely). I carry foaming hand soap, water, and paper towels in the door of my car, with another soap and water setup just outside my rig's entry door, so I can wash my hands thoroughly before entering the car or RV. Mainly, I stay home. I'm not panicking, but I also don't want to die before my time. 11 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #51 – March 23, 2020, 12:06:06 am Quote from: Andy Baird - March 22, 2020, 11:39:39 pm"AZ is on the low end of reported cases and no signs of a lock down at this point (the increased availability of testing is creating big rises in the number of reported cases all over including here)."That's the big unknown. The US lags so far behind countries such as South Korea in tests per capita that we really have no idea how many cases there are. For example, last time I checked, there were no reported cases in Mohave County, AZ. Whew! But wait--nobody in Mohave County has been tested. So we don't know how many are infected right now.Much of the country is in a similar situation. It's easy to relax when there are no cases, or only a handful, in one's area... but since less than 1% of the population has been tested, the numbers we're seeing almost certainly vastly underrepresent the number of infected people."I will be interested to see how it all turns out compared to other flus..."This is important: the coronavirus Covid-19 is not a flu. It isn't in the same family of viruses, and it's much more dangerous than a flu virus. Calling it that could lead people to shrug it off as "just another flu... this happens every year, so what's the big deal?" I know you didn't mean that, but I'm concerned that people won't take the medical community's recommendations seriously if they think this is just another flu.Based on worldwide statistics so far, Covid-19 is at least twice as contagious as flu, and about twenty times more likely to kill. While it's true that seasonal flu kills tens of thousands each year, the combination of rapid spread and high lethality make this coronavirus pandemic something to take very seriously.I wear nitrile gloves when I have to go out in public (rarely). I carry foaming hand soap, water, and paper towels in the door of my car, with another soap and water setup just outside my rig's entry door, so I can wash my hands thoroughly before entering the car or RV. Mainly, I stay home. I'm not panicking, but I also don't want to die before my time. Excellent points, Andy. Better safe than sorry.Chris 1 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #52 – March 23, 2020, 11:43:47 am "(the increased availability of testing is creating big rises in the number of reported cases all over including here)." And by extension, lots more people infected that are potentially spreading it. Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus pandemic, in one chart - Vox Bill 1 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #53 – March 23, 2020, 02:17:44 pm Just got a notice from rec.gov that our reservations for Serrano CG on Big Bear Lake were cancelled. We were all set to head for hills March 26 and then head for Zion. Rats! At least Zion is still on the calendar for April, hopefully. Next year for sure. 🤩Kent
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #54 – March 23, 2020, 03:31:30 pm This is the current status on Zion. Zion National Park Public Health Update - Zion National Park (U.S. National...— Jon
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #55 – March 23, 2020, 03:52:28 pm Thanks Jon and Loni,Well then with all that’s happening now in the world that’s a a little rainbow at the end of the tunnel.We actually have two weeks reserved in Watchman none of which I cancelled. My DW’s employer had insisted she work on Mother’s Day which fell in the middle of our Zion stay so I added a week at Serrano in order to guarantee a two week trip. We all know how reliable guarantees are. https://youtu.be/juNqfxhirBMHopefully this whole COVID-19 CG closure will be over before May and we can get back to campin’Stay safe.Kent
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #56 – March 23, 2020, 04:54:16 pm We have a reservation in CA in May that has not yet been canceled. I figure flipping a coin is as good a way to know as any if it might be open in May or if Larry bought that hindsight eightball prediction device I could ask him We are expecting our special events the next 3-6 months will get postponed but we are on a wait and see mode and still hopeful (and will be until a month ahead of the events).Andy, my comment was meaning that I didn't know about 20000 people dying in the U.S. from the flu every season (4 month period) - no media tracking that and I was thinking more like a hundred or so a real eye opener for me.Hopefully instead of getting a new vaccine and going back to the old patterns, everyone will continue with the new things people are starting to do to not pick up germs (e.g. washing hands more often when around others and when leaving more populated places and entering your spaces - car/home and touching things /people with elbows/knuckles/etc. not finger tips). That would protect from any illnesses floating around now and forever in the future.I am finding that with the tons of media on many different topics, the younger people are not understanding the severity or their role (that is not being communicated well that everyone needs to stop spreading germs). One report showed that there are many more people in their 20s and 40s that are ending up in the hospital on a respirator than other age groups, though they are more likely to survive than people over 80. Time will tell and hopefully we learn a lot about this experience to go forward into the future.Jane
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #57 – March 23, 2020, 05:06:17 pm One of my former students messaged me to share that his peers are referring to COVID-19 as the "Boomer Doomer". I didn't find it humorous nor do I appreciate the sentiment.Harold 2 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #58 – March 23, 2020, 06:55:33 pm I am wondering what boondocking full-timers have to say about traveling in these times. How are you doing? Do you find still more or less easily places to stay?Klaus
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #59 – March 24, 2020, 09:58:19 am Coronavirus And National Parks: What's ClosedState by State Campground Closures Due to COVID-19As ever, YMMV.
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #60 – March 24, 2020, 10:26:06 am update on math.....In my younger days I use to get a lecture I call the tyranny of numbers. Numbers have no personal agenda only humans have agenda. If you take 1 and double it you get 2, double that you get 4, double that you get 8, double that you get 64, double that you 4096 double that you get 16,777,216 double that you get a number that exceeds the human population -- 2.814 x 10 to the 14th power.That's only 7 doubles.glenwash you hands don't pick your nose
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #61 – March 24, 2020, 11:18:43 am How to Virtually Travel From Your Living Room | Travel | Smithsonian Magazine
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #62 – March 24, 2020, 11:52:16 am Quote from: colddog - March 24, 2020, 10:26:06 amwash you hands don't pick your noseCan I pick my nose after I have washed my hands?Klaus 1 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #63 – March 24, 2020, 01:52:09 pm Another Math updateFrom what I see below, at step 4, when I double 8 I get 16, then 32, then 64. If you actually double the previous number, it takes 33 steps to get over 7.8 billion, roughly the would population. (ie, 2^33 = 8,589,934,592). No slight intended Glen. Both growth curves are exponential, which I think is your point.KenQuote from: colddog - March 24, 2020, 10:26:06 amupdate on math.....In my younger days I use to get a lecture I call the tyranny of numbers. Numbers have no personal agenda only humans have agenda. If you take 1 and double it you get 2, double that you get 4, double that you get 8, double that you get 64, double that you 4096 double that you get 16,777,216 double that you get a number that exceeds the human population -- 2.814 x 10 to the 14th power.That's only 7 doubles.glenwash you hands don't pick your nose
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #64 – March 24, 2020, 07:58:32 pm Quote from: Ken and Joyce - March 24, 2020, 01:52:09 pmAnother Math updateFrom what I see below, at step 4, when I double 8 I get 16, then 32, then 64. If you actually double the previous number, it takes 33 steps to get over 7.8 billion, roughly the would population. (ie, 2^33 = 8,589,934,592). No slight intended Glen. Both growth curves are exponential, which I think is your point.Ken<smile> and to think when I worked for a living folks lives depended on me using the 'correct' numbers...... thanks for double checking (no pun intended) my math. For a graphic view of what is happening in the USACoronavirus in the United States: Mapping the COVID-19 outbreak - USAFactsThis web site just uses publicly available numbers to 'explain' what, were, and how this USA is doing in its public and private life.glen
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #65 – March 24, 2020, 11:16:19 pm Here in Michigan Governor order to stay home. Only go out for necessities. Businesses are closing. Infected counts are rapidly increasing daily. We are only testing 1000 a day. N.Y. testing 13,000 daily. There numbers are through the roof. Hospitals and medical centers now closing due to being full or not having proper protective equipment. More People dying every day. People buying groceries at such a rate stores can’t keep up. Police getting infected. Not enough protective equipment for anyone.With the exception of N.Y. I feel most states are not testing enough, giving citizens a false sense of security. There are many more cases walking around you that may have no symptoms. God bless heath care workers, doctors, nurses, grocery store employees, food carry out workers....they are heroes. Then next two weeks will be totally panic filled days. If you are considering traveling think again. What if you break down and nobody comes to help? What if your refrigerator fails? State parks and private parks are closing. Stay home. This wave will come to you eventually.Ron 4 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #66 – March 24, 2020, 11:45:29 pm "I didn't know about 20000 people dying in the U.S. from the flu every season... a real eye opener for me."I too didn't realize that the seasonal flu killed that many people every year. It's sad and scary for somebody like me who grew up in the Fifties, when all the major infectious diseases were supposedly licked--smallpox, yellow fever, polio, tuberculosis, syphilis, mumps, measles. We thought we had it made. Antibiotics were going to cure everything. And now here we are."Hopefully instead of getting a new vaccine and going back to the old patterns, everyone will continue with the new things people are starting to do..."I'm with you! The 1918 pandemic changed a few habits, such as spitting in the street. Maybe this one will too. 1 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #67 – March 25, 2020, 12:13:20 am This is NOT the yearly FLU. This IDEA is from people who cannot fathom reality and have slow emotional or mental uptake. This - Contagion, effect, and death is well above the Flu , not even known, but so far by 3.5% compared to .01% common Flu. Not about 'only over 80 year olds, people with underlying health issues'. That has been a proven lie. The first minor under 18 years old has died in the US a day ago, the first young person known in the World. Only in New Mexico there are several 20-30 years old confirmed and we are on the very slow side of the epidemic with FEW TESTED. The kids that went to Spring break are also coming up Positive. It's NOT the FLU and Stop saying it is. 2 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #68 – March 25, 2020, 01:21:00 am Where I live in New Mexico All State parks are Closed, so you have no where to camp. Where I live outside of Percha State Park Most RV sites are full. Plus , we don't really want anyone from outside coming in. That's simply the FACTS. We have stopped using the public bathrooms, showers, which are only cleaned once a week on Monday, so you utterly take your chances using them all week. People have stolen all the toilet paper and paper towels every week.If you think 'Great Time to travel'! I would rethink it. Spring breakers here, left the place a mess, in an rv park full of older people. Please Don't Come, as we are trying to be safe. There is Nowhere to go, there is Nothing to do. You cant go to the park, it's Closed. You cant fish, or picnic, just Stay home.
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #69 – March 25, 2020, 09:35:08 am As zentaos-Patricia said, this is not similar to flu. First, because of past exposure to flu, most of us have some resistance to flu that reduces its severity for most of us when we contract flu. Second, we have vaccines for flu that reduce its contagion. Third, with flu, there is typically not a large demand for respirators or ICU treatment. The mortality rate for flu is less than 1/10 that of Covid 19. Fourth, the Covid 19 virus is much more contagious than flu.In brief, when comparing Covid 19 to flu, Covid 19 is more contagious, is more lethal, requires more ICU beds, requires more ventilators, and we have neither vaccines nor resistance based on past exposure. Those are definite. It is possible that Covid 19 may last longer in the air and on surfaces than flu, may take longer for symptoms to show while still being contagious, and thus may spread more easily, but we do not know that for sure.Ken F in NM 4 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #70 – March 25, 2020, 04:15:14 pm Please do not come to California, Oregon, or Washington. The governors in each of these states have issued stay at home orders. We are trying to get people to stay home and not spread the virus. All non essential businesses are closed. All non essential travel is being enforced and RV travel would be in that category. All parks and recreations sites are closed. One posting called this hysteria, but actually it is called a pandemic, and people are dying. Our doctors, nurses, and hospitals are barely coping and the supplies they have been promised from the federal government are not being delivered. There is a shortage of ventilators nationwide, and now there is talk that they would choose to use those on younger people that could possibly survive rather than using them on the older population. (Many of us fall into that category.) You can be with a person that is infected and has no symptoms, yet is shedding the virus, and then you could become sick....very sick. There is no cure. Traveling at this time is not worth risking your life. Stay home, stay safe. 3 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #71 – March 25, 2020, 08:26:41 pm Quote from: Kenneth Fears - March 25, 2020, 09:35:08 amThe mortality rate for flu is less than 1/10 that of Covid 19. Fourth, the Covid 19 virus is much more contagious than flu.Ken, I would love to see where you saw those stats. I haven't seen anything like that yet. Thanks JaneMany of the stats are coming from other countries where they have been dealing with everything longer than we have in the U.S. so I expect more knowledge to come from there.I saw one set of stats that said of the people in the hospital a higher percentage were in their 20s and their 40s (both groups something like 20%) than the percentage of people over 80 (something like 7%), however the younger people had a higher survival rate. I don't have the link to that and didn't find it when I took a quick look for it a couple days later.JaneP.S. I know people are stressed out. But note, just because someone is talking about the flu or other illnesses going around does not mean they are saying the Covid-19 is a flu.It is so easy to misread text only - like this forum - without face expressions, voice tone, etc. and without that full context people have to put their own interpretations onto what they are reading (have a strong reaction that usually doesn't match what the person was meaning when they wrote the message).I would ask everyone to be a little more gentle with others (and yourself) during these stressful times. If you are reacting to a post, I suggest walking away and waiting until you can read the post calmly without reacting and then come state your opinion. Thanks everyone for considering doing this. 3 Likes
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #72 – March 25, 2020, 08:38:09 pm I found the stats Ken was referring to - this post from John Hopkins which seems to be a clearing house for information. John Hopkins - coronavirus disease 2019 vs the fluAnd here is one on how Covid-19 compares to other pandemics Covid-19 compared to other pandemics
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #73 – March 25, 2020, 09:42:20 pm Jane, here is a quote from Journal of American Medical Association *JAMA' "At the outset of the COVID-19 outbreak, the Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità [ISS]) launched a surveillance system to collect information on all people with COVID-19 throughout the country. Data on all COVID-19 cases were obtained from all 19 Italian regions and the 2 autonomous provinces of Trento and Bozen. COVID-19 cases were identified by reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The fatality rate was defined as number of deaths in persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 divided by number of SARS-CoV-2 cases. The overall fatality rate of persons with confirmed COVID-19 in the Italian population, based on data up to March 17, was 7.2% (1625 deaths/22 512 cases).From the Washingtomn Post, Washington Post World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news briefing March 3 that the global case fatality rate for the coronavirus is believed to be about 3.4 percent and in the same article, "Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that the mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.1 percent."Ken F in NM
Re: Good time to travel or not Reply #74 – March 25, 2020, 10:31:18 pm Ken, Thanks. I found some sites also. I am limiting my online news time on purpose. I might focus on John Hopkins site as they seem to be gathering health aspects,Sawyer - Apparently too many people are going out and trails are overloaded - in some spots at least. When I was in WA, the eastern half had a hard time getting politicians to see that they were drastically different than the west half. They needed less regulation on the eastern half as residents didn’t have the income to pay for overhead that the western residents did (and they were doing fine without it).Scott gave up fly fishing (we were on the western part) cause it was no fun when you were bumping elbows with the guy next to you and that was after driving an hour to get to the location. Didn’t matter what time of year. We tried tent camping a couple times then gave up (too many people for us).I wonder if your local law enforcement would say for your uncrowded area you are ok to hit the trails. However WA is one of the hardest hit areas....they are just trying to flatten the curve.Jane
Topic: Good time to travel or not (Read 2942 times)
previous topic - next topic
Topic: Good time to travel or not (Read 2942 times)
previous topic - next topic